Tag Archives: forecast

Coal’s Terrible Forecast

There are many unfortunate outcomes to Peak Oil. One of the more serious is the world’s transition back to coal. Expensive BTU from crude oil has influenced the energy adoption pathway of the Developing World for ten years now, pushing the five billion people in the Non-OECD towards coal. My work has documented this shift […]

Ceiling at 16: California’s Lack of Recovery

Total employment in California fell in June from 15.974 million to 15.910 million. The bigger story however is that, in addition to making a lower low in 2010, California employment never regained the 16 million mark first achieved early last decade. This is yet another way to understand how the American economic system, while still […]

Noise, Not a Recovery

The State of California reported a loss of 29,000 non-farm payrolls in May. Actually, California added 88,000 jobs in May when using the total employment data for the month. However, as I have pointed out over the past year, these oscillations are just noise. Our nation’s largest state faces a protracted, structural level of unemployment […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 30 November 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. As I wrote last week, I have joined other groups like Barclays and Goldman Sachs in dropping the near term forecast, until volatility subsides more dependably. It’s possible that simply getting through the end of 2008 may […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 16 November 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. As a reminder, this is a very volatile time so my average for the next three months may appear high but the forecast now runs through mid-January. Weather is starting to come into play. While November is […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 2 November 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. Oil has now spent sixteen trading sessions below 90.00. Thirteen of those sessions were spent below 80.00. And just six of those sessions were spent below 70.00. The perception of price level is interesting, because we tend […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 26 October 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. The downward move in oil has been nothing less than a fast crash, over the past 4 weeks. Indeed, even the weekly drops are stunning, in percentage terms. As my readers know this has caused many oil […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 19 October 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. As other analysts capitulate and drop their year end targets, the pressure mounts to change my 90.00-110.00 range. However, we have just come through an extraordinary financial event. And we are only 18.00 dollars away from 90.00. […]

When Oil Analysts Capitulate

Fortune favors the bold. But not when price is falling. A cascade of previously bullish oil analysts from Jeff Rubin at CIBC to the team at Goldman Sachs have now backed down, from their Summer forecasts for end-2008, and end-2009 oil prices. One trigger appears to have been IEA Paris forecasts, released last week. IEA […]

Weekly Updated Oil Price Forecast: 12 October 2008

Each week I give a price projection for the average price of oil over the next 90 days. During a time of turmoil, when liquidation is occurring across all asset classes, pushing prices down to extreme levels, it’s tempting to change one’s outlook. However, given my ongoing work on the cost(s) of the global, incremental […]